It's an overwhelming time right now. Everyone in the world is focused on COVID-19, and to varying degrees, is changing the way they live.
From an economic perspective -- beyond the obvious massive damage due to a halting of large swaths of the economy, which will need to be addressed with some form of government bailout -- there will also be some amount of permanent restructuring.
Many people are experiencing, for the first time, how many activities -- work, learning, healthcare, and socializing -- can be done remotely and in new ways using digital tools. For sure, when the dust settles, we will largely go back to doing things how we've always done them, but I suspect that certain new behaviors will stick, and will result in longer-term behavioral and economic changes.
The most obvious one is business travel and remote work. Everyone who can is learning how to do this now -- including companies/teams/individuals that may have resisted it mightily in the past. Moving forward, it's going to be much harder to justify an in-person-only culture. Virtual conferences & meetings have drawbacks, for sure, but they also have advantages. I suspect that coming out of the crisis, many professionals will have a permanently higher bar for justifying work travel.
The next one is remote health. We now have the infrastructure, at scale, for communicating with doctors virtually, and collecting test samples at home. Laws limiting what doctors and patients can do together over voice and video will change. Nikhil Krishnan has a great piece exploring this in detail. This will stick.
Everyone with kids is scrambling to figure out how to keep them engaged, connected and learning. Every school is scrambling to implement a remote learning capability. Subscriptions at online learning platforms are through the roof. School will resume but remote learning will stick.
Finally, it also feels like we are rediscovering our social and entertainment lives. I have never been more active with friends and family -- especially, for some reason, those who live at a distance -- as much as recently. I have never done video chats with groups of friends and now that's regular. My kids are connecting with their friends over FaceTime every day. Group and one-on-one chats are on fire. To a degree, this is because everyone's at home with nothing to do. But I believe this will also stick.
What is most interesting to me is not the social changes, but the institutional ones. In the cases of work, learning and healthcare, we are talking about massive institutions that are learning new behaviors on-the-fly. This is a big deal -- we're probably seeing years-worth of change occurring over a matter of weeks. It's astonishing, really.
And, as a result, a massive number of individuals are learning new moves, which will put pressure on the institutions not to roll everything back when this is all over. Not everything will stick, but I suspect a lot of it will.
It has been astonishing (and largely encouraging) to see nearly every activity that can be shifted to video begin to go there. Over the past few days, in our house, we've seen the following:
Piano lesson over FaceTime
Band practice over Zoom
Many business calls over Zoom
Scavenger hunt over FaceTime
Academic and fun classes on Outschool (also Zoom)
Virtual cocktail hour over Zoom
Coloring contest (3 marker challenge) over FaceTime
Further, all kind of activity is moving to chat: iMessage, Signal, Slack, etc. The USV team Slack, which has been largely dormant for recent history, is fun and vibrant right now.
Everyone is at home, and a lot of people are connected to video. So it's actually easy to reach people, and everyone is looking for social connection.
I think a lot about systems -- for personal organization, for business automation, for urban information, for financial infrastructure, for the internet, etc. On a big macro level, I have always been fascinated by the way that many forces, people and ideas come together to make things. And on a micro level, what it takes to say, keep your finances in order, or keep your to-dos rational, etc.
One thing I have found to be true is that simple systems tend to work better. They are easier to understand, easier to maintain, and easier to work with. TCP/IP, Bitcoin, putting to-dos directly into your calendar. Less is more.
At the same time, complex systems are appealing -- sexy, sophisticated, alluring. But can be hard to use and costly to maintain.
I find that it's a constant struggle to remind oneself that simpler is usually better. A system is only as good as its implementation and execution. And the best systems can be used broadly over a long period of time.
I was reminded of this recently when reading Greg Kogan's post on how Simple Systems have Less Downtime. He goes into some detail on this subject, looking at examples as far apart from one another as a container ship that can be manned & maintainer by a tiny crew, and marketing automation scripts that can be maintained by a team over time. It's great reminder.